Who's already called, what the outstanding markets are saying, and when the next count should move. Filter by party, potential pickup, or the next update—then explore historic firsts and decades-long gaps.
Seat-call snapshot: November 8, 2026, 00:37 EST (Poliwave). Market snapshot: November 8, 08:59 UTC (Kalshi last traded prices, via State of the Odds). Different providers apply different calling rules. This page is a timestamped snapshot, not an automatic election-data feed.
This baseline follows one November 8 provider snapshot so that the 435 seats sum correctly. Each other source may have a different count of called races. The grey section is not awarded to either party.
218 seats required for a majority. Democrats have passed that threshold in this provider's called-seat count. See current district calls ↗
Where a market is quoted, its leader and price are shown exactly as a November 8 snapshot. Use filters to distinguish Republican-held seats where a Democrat could flip the district from Democratic seats where a candidate is defending it.
Uncalled district races, required ranked-choice tabulations, very close recounts, and two Louisiana runoffs are different processes. Don't add all categories together as “seats Democrats can gain.”
The 16 market prices below are the last traded Kalshi prices reported by State of the Odds on November 8 at 08:59 UTC. A listed percentage describes the market's price for the named candidate, not an official vote share or my own prediction. Only candidates with reported prices appear; the opposing party is displayed as the complement when the contract is a two-party winner market.
Paul LePage (R) versus Matt Dunlap (D). Dunlap conceded November 5. The secretary of state must still run ranked-choice tabulation starting November 9 at 10:00 EST (16:00 Madrid). LePage had 170,263 first-choice votes; Dunlap 164,845.
This was previously Democratic-held by Jared Golden, who retired. A concession is politically significant, but the official process is not finished.
Nick Begich (R) leads the initial reported U.S. House vote. Bill Hill (nonpartisan) is the principal challenger, while Democrat Eric Hafner also received first-choice votes. This is not simply a D-versus-R contest.
No comparable two-party Democratic win probability has been verified here. Alaska plans ranked-choice tabulation November 18; the preliminary FairVote simulation had Begich 54%, Hill 46%, which is not an official count.
CA-04, CA-07, CA-11, CA-14: Democrat versus Democrat. CA-40: Republican versus Republican. The candidates and exact numbers can still be unsettled even though the party taking each seat is known.
These are not additional Democratic-versus-Republican flips and should not be added to the pickup total.
A district can fall out of the market-price table because trading closed, its outcome was called, or no market was offered. These are not zeros. For the full 435-race inventory, use the national live race-by-race page, which updates separately from this snapshot.
These are state-published counting or canvass milestones, not promised winner-call dates. Some states release unofficial results sooner; recounts or litigation can extend the process.
10:00 EST / 16:00 Madrid. A concession has already been reported.
NC-03, NC-05 and other affected districts may see totals change. Final county canvass Nov 13.
3:00 p.m. EST / 21:00 Madrid for ordered machine recounts, notably FL-27.
11:00 EST / 17:00 Madrid. State canvass follows Nov 24.
County returns due at noon Eastern; state certification scheduled Nov 17.
Planned 15 days after the general election, after late eligible ballots are reviewed.
2 p.m. CST / 21:00 Madrid for MN-01. A recount can be requested after canvass.
Important checkpoint for the very close TN-04 count.
NC state and WA county certification milestone. WA state certification Dec 3.
County canvass deadline for CO-04; recounts may follow.
County tallies finalized; statewide certification Dec 11.
Two-candidate elections; either may still change the final party breakdown.
These are verified facts about called races or historically documented seats, plus qualified milestones that would apply if an uncalled race changes party. Candidates' personal identities are included only where documented by reporting.